By Fredrik Erixon of the European Centre for International Political Economy

By Fredrik Erixon of the European Centre for International Political Economy Russia s command to fall in the World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) , filed in 1993, has been the longest accession saga in the history of the universe trade organic structure. Yet now, after bilateral trades with the US and the European Union that secured their support for the rank command, Russia looks set to fall in the pantheon of rules-based planetary capitalist economy at some point following twelvemonth. This is welcome intelligence. Russia would profit from being portion of the WTO nine. Its exports will non acquire much of a encouragement because they are dominated by the hydrocarbons and minerals ( stand foring more than two tierces of entire exports ) and they are already traded at zero or really low duties. But Russia will profit from lower monetary values of imported consumer and industrial goods, and, hopefully, from an addition in foreign direct investing ( FDI ) . If the Kremlin besides decides to follow the WTO regulation book, rank will assist to restrain Russia s fickle trade policy, particularly its regular descents into protectionism. Naturally, that would be of value for exporters to Russia ( and for importers of Russian goods, excessively, as Russia on a regular basis uses export revenue enhancements ) , but the biggest donee would be Russia itself. The biggest casualty of protectionism is ever the state that imposes such steps. Other states would profit from Russian WTO rank through a decrease in duties mean duties will travel down from 12-14 per centum to around 8 per centum and from an betterment in their predictability. The sectors that will profit specifically from a decrease in duties are civil aircraft, building, agricultural and scientific equipment, and medical devices. Russia will necessitate to present greater transparence ( and less favoritism ) in its system for merchandise criterions, licences and other alleged non-tariff barriers ( NTBs ) . Furthermore, sectors dependent on rational belongings, such as chemicals and biotechnology, will profit from holding resort to the WTO s agreement on rational belongings rights ( TRIPS ) to train Russia s shambolic IPR policy. Finally, foreign Bankss and insurance houses will be granted bigger chances to make concern in Russia. But there are besides hazards and downsides to holding Russia as member of the WTO. The biggest hazard is that the Kremlin will merely ignore opinions against Russia in the dispute-settlement system, the anchor of the WTO. As the WTO itself can non implement opinions that require policy alteration in a state, the system requires that states respect the authorization of the dispute-settlem ent organic structure and that bigger and more powerful states avoid playing power games with smaller states over opinions. The instance for esteeming opinions is simple: it is in everyone s involvement that states adhere to hold regulations. The failing is the same as for all systems that depend on enlightened involvement for a common good: some may liberate drive on the system in the belief that it benefits them, at least in the short term. And if some are free-riding, others will follow. And the system will unknot. This hazard is underlined by Russia s recent history of flashing international understandings ( and, as in the instance of the Energy Charter Treaty, retreating from understandings ) in the belief that no 1 would hold the bravery to contend the Kremlin to the acrimonious terminal. Russian rank will besides add a new bed of troubles for WTO dialogues, like the current Doha Round. Russia will be portion of the protectionist wing of the rank and will defy in countries that are cardinal to universe trade today and in future, like liberating up services trade, cutting ruddy tape that prevents trade, and restricting the freedom to subsidise domestic houses at the disbursal of foreign rivals. It will besides implement the resistance to turn toing old issues, like cut downing or extinguishing duties on consumer and industrial goods. Russia s fabrication sector is weak it merely represents 6-7 per centum of Russia s export and suffers from the Dutch disease: the heavy trust on hydrocarbon exports have pushed the existent exchange rate to such a grade that the fabrication sector has suffered. Many industries are saddled with old Soviet engineerings, and they survive on subsidies and boundary line protectionism. There are positive marks that Russia is acute to alter its economic theoretical account. The new Kremlin rhetoric on modernisation and the denationalization plans suggest that energy and state-based economic dictatorship is on a downward tendency. The new morning in its rank command for the WTO is besides a good mark. But the marks are far excessively few to be cheerful about Russian economic policy. Like earlier, optimism over the WTO accession can shortly switch to pessimism. The old theoretical account is entrenched in the Kremlin economic mind and there are many powerful figures that dislike the thought of being constrained by international understandings or increased foreign competition. President Medvedev has now secured the support from the US and the European Union for its WTO command. Now he needs to take the battle with Kremlin co-workers and oligarchs. That may go a far bigger job. Fredrik Erixon is manager of the European Centre for International Political Economy ( ECIPE ) , an economic think armored combat vehicle based in Brussels